Sources

A game that argues with you about real economics owes you its working. Every number on screen is one of three things, and this page says which — because the failure worth avoiding is a figure we made up sitting next to one we can prove, in the same font, at the same size.

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The three classes

ARecorded. A published series or a law. Linked, and you can check it.
RRepresentative. Derived, stitched, or typical of a period — not a single recorded quote.
BAuthored. Written by us to be plausible. Drama, not evidence.

The scheme is borrowed from the Econ Atlas, the shared dataset behind the Screwcap games, so that a number means the same thing here as it does in the others.

The live strip, on the landing page

Fetched from FRED at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, cached for an hour, and shown with the date of the print. If the feed fails, the strip disappears — it never falls back to a constant, because a stale invention that looks live is exactly what this page exists to prevent.

Shown asSeriesPublished byClass
FED FUNDSDFFFederal ReserveA
CPI YoYCPIAUCSL, year-over-yearU.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsA
UNEMPLOYMENTUNRATEU.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsA
REAL GDPA191RL1Q225SBEAU.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisA
US10YDGS10Federal ReserveA
REAL 10YDFII10Federal ReserveA
BROAD USDDTWEXBGSFederal ReserveA
S&P 500SP500S&P Dow Jones Indices LLCA
DOWDJIAS&P Dow Jones Indices LLCA
VIXVIXCLSCboeA

BROAD USD is not the DXY. It is the Federal Reserve's own broad trade-weighted dollar index — a different basket and a different number from ICE's. We label it accordingly rather than borrowing the more famous name for a figure that isn't it.

On the index levels. S&P 500, the Dow and VIX are reported here as current levels, with their owners credited. Those levels are facts and are quoted daily by every newspaper in the world. What we do not do is ship their historical series as a dataset of our own — that is a licensed database product, and FRED's ten-year window on them is that licence showing through. The marks are used descriptively, to report a number, and imply no endorsement or association.

Inside a scenario

A run is not a live feed. It is a historical scenario, and the figures move with it.

WhatWhere it comes fromClass
The Fed's real rate path
(Watch Mode, "You vs the Real Fed")
The actual policy rate for that eraA
Opening conditions
(GDP, inflation, unemployment, rate)
Published figures for the quarter the scenario opens inA
Headlines and dated eventsReal events, on their real dates, filtered to the years the scenario actually coversA
Presidential quotesThings those presidents said, placed in the quarters they were in officeA
Quarterly gold and oilOur own quarter-by-quarter figures for the era — close to the record, not extracted from itR
Quarterly index levels and FXAs above: representative of where those markets stood, authored by usR
What the economy does when you move ratesAn expectations-augmented model — Phillips, Okun, Taylor, policy lags, credibilityR
The advisor, the board, the Senate, the live feedWritten for this game. Dr. Marcus Feldman is not a personB

The middle rows are the honest ones to be clear about. A quarterly gold price for 1980 in this game is about right and is there to make the era feel like itself — it is not a quote you should cite. Where it matters, that is what the R means.

What we do not claim

There are no usage statistics anywhere in this game. There used to be — a nav counter that said 142 economists were watching, a landing page that claimed 105,847 players, and a header line that started at 105 and climbed on a timer. None of it was measured. All of it is gone, and nothing replaced it, because the honest version of an unmeasured number is no number.

Nothing here is financial advice, and a simulation that fits history is still a simulation.

Corrections

If a figure here is wrong we would rather know. contact@screwcap.games — the changelog records what changed and when.